The Irish Times recently reported that according to the latest forecasts from the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Ireland's total greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall by 23% by 2030, while the national target is a 51% reduction.
This is lower than the 29% reduction predicted last year, which means that the gap between the current achievable emission reduction level and the statutory emission reduction target of 51% is widening.
The latest data shows that the largest emission industries, transportation, agriculture, construction and energy, will not be able to achieve the legally binding targets for 2030. Even in the most optimistic scenario of full implementation of the government's climate action plan, this goal is unlikely to be achieved.
The carbon budget set by the Irish government since 2021 to limit carbon emissions will not be achieved, increasing the possibility that Ireland will face billions of euros in compliance costs imposed by the European Union at the end of this decade, which will take the form of purchasing "emission quotas" from other member states.
EPA Director Laura Burke said that while the emission trend is moving in the right direction, the gap with the national emission reduction target is larger than last year. It highlights the need to work on social decarbonization across the economy, and the focus must shift from policy goals to actual implementation.
Ireland's 2021 carbon budget limits emissions to 295 million tonnes of CO2e and is currently expected to be exceeded by 8 to 12 million tonnes of CO2e.
