A research report published on the 15th in the journal *Nature Climate Change* indicates that if global warming is not effectively addressed, the rate of glacier loss worldwide will accelerate from the current average of 1,000 glaciers per year to 2,000 to 4,000 glaciers per year by the 2040s and 50s.
A team led by Randall van Tricht, a glacier expert at ETH Zurich, studied satellite images of over 210,000 glaciers in a global database, using computer models to simulate glacier melting under different warming scenarios.
The results show that if the global average temperature rises by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, peak glacier melting will occur around 2041, with an average of 2,000 glaciers melting per year. It is projected that by the end of this century, the number of glaciers worldwide will have decreased to approximately 96,000, more than half of the current number.
Assuming a 4-degree Celsius warming scenario, peak glacier melting is projected around 2055, with an average of 4,000 glaciers disappearing per year. By the end of this century, only about 18,000 glaciers will remain, approximately 9% of the current number.
Researchers say the rate of glacial melting slows after its peak because the total amount of glacier remaining decreases, and larger glaciers tend to take longer to melt.
Researchers point out that studies on glacier changes typically focus on the reduction in their size and area; this study, however, focuses on the number of glaciers.
They believe that while the melting of small and medium-sized glaciers has a smaller impact on sea-level rise than that of large glaciers, its impact on people living near glaciers and those whose lives are related to glaciers should not be underestimated.
The report states that glacial landscapes attract a large number of tourists annually and support many ski resorts; glacial melting could damage the winter tourism economy. In some places, glaciers have deep historical, cultural, and symbolic significance. Furthermore, even small glaciers provide essential meltwater to local areas.
According to the 2015 Paris Agreement, the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will strengthen their efforts to address climate change, aiming to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, and striving to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, this goal is facing challenges. The Global Climate Change Index report released in June this year by the journal Earth System Science Data indicates that, at the rate of 42 billion tons of carbon dioxide produced per year in 2024, there is a 50% probability that the temperature will rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by around February 2028.
