A draft proposal from the European Union indicates that if national forests fail to absorb sufficient carbon dioxide to meet emissions reduction targets, the EU is considering a "braking clause" that could potentially weaken its 2040 climate goals.
According to reports from Reuters and Politico Europe, EU member states are attempting to approve new 2040 climate targets at the climate ministerial meeting on November 4th to avoid European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arriving at the United Nations on November 6th empty-handed to attend the COP30 climate summit with other world leaders.
However, due to concerns from some countries about the costs to domestic industries, the EU is considering various flexibility clauses and options to weaken the climate goals-the European Commission has previously advocated for a 90% reduction in emissions contributing to global warming by 2040.
Over the past decade, carbon dioxide absorption by Europe's forests and land-use sector has decreased by nearly one-third due to factors such as wildfires and unsustainable forest management.
Previous draft negotiations indicated that countries were already considering revising the EU's 2040 targets every two years, another possible way to weaken those targets in the future.
Achieving this goal requires the support of at least 15 of the EU's 27 member states.
A Danish spokesperson, representing the EU's rotating presidency and drafting the document, stated that all the necessary elements for reaching an agreement are now in place, and "with COP30 about to begin, now is the time to reach a consensus on the 2040 targets."
Furthermore, EU Climate Commissioner Wöpke Hoekstra stated that the potential absence of the United States from the upcoming COP30 marks "a watershed moment."
"We are talking about the world's largest, most dominant, and most important geopolitical player, which is also the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases," Hoekstra said on September 2nd.
US President Trump has already announced that the US will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time. In October, the US delegation, while participating in negotiations with the International Maritime Organization in London, also pressured countries to skip the vote on the global shipping carbon emissions fee proposal.
Overall, approximately 100 countries failed to submit stronger carbon emissions targets before COP30. A 2024 UN report found that even if countries fulfill their 2030 emissions reduction commitments, carbon pollution would only decrease by less than 3% compared to 2019 levels. This could hardly prevent the arrival of a major climate tipping point.
