The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released a major report, lowering its five-year forecast for global offshore wind power generation by more than a quarter. The downward revision is attributed to multiple challenges, including a shift in US policy and the cancellation or postponement of offshore wind projects in Japan and several other countries, casting a shadow over the development of the global offshore wind industry.
According to the IEA's annual report, "Renewables 2025," released earlier this month-its flagship annual report on renewable energy-global offshore wind capacity is projected to increase to 140 GW in the five years to 2030. This represents a significant 27% drop from last year's forecast.
The IEA's report identified the key reason for the downward revision: it took into account "project cancellations and postponements in Europe, Japan, and India due to rising costs and supply chain challenges." For example, in Japan, in August of this year, Japanese trading giant Mitsubishi Corporation announced its withdrawal from an offshore wind project it was collaborating on with subsidiaries of Chubu Electric Power Company and others. The project originally planned to construct 134 wind turbines at three sites near northeastern and eastern Japan, with commercial operations scheduled to begin between 2028 and 2030 and continue until 2052. However, construction costs more than doubled compared to the original plan, leading to its cancellation, a significant blow to the Japanese government's renewable energy development plans.
However, overall global renewable energy development continues to show growth. The International Energy Agency predicts that global renewable energy generation capacity will double over the next five years, reaching 4,600 gigawatts, with solar photovoltaic power generation contributing approximately 80% of this increase. The report also predicts that renewable energy will surpass coal as the world's largest source of electricity by the end of this year, or by mid-2026 at the latest, marking a critical turning point in the global energy transition.
