According to Mining Weekly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out in its latest annual report, Global Critical Minerals Outlook, that the increasing concentration of supply in a few countries and the spread of export restrictions have put the global critical mineral market at greater risk.
The report provides the latest data and analysis on supply, demand and investment of energy-related critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths.
In addition, the IEA has also upgraded the Critical Minerals Data Explorer, which can help users find the latest IEA forecasts.
For the first time, this report includes analysis of energy-related strategic minerals, which are essential for high-tech aerospace and advanced manufacturing industries.
The report found that the critical mineral market is becoming more concentrated, not less, especially for smelting and processing. For copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths, the top three producers will increase their share from 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024 on average, with almost all of the growth coming from the largest producers.
While policymakers are now aware of these challenges, a closer look at announced projects by the IEA shows that critical mineral supply chains are making slow progress in diversifying. Under current policy conditions and investment trends, the average share of the top three suppliers will only decline slightly over the next decade, returning only to 2020 concentration levels.
The report shows that demand growth for critical energy minerals has been strong in recent years. Lithium demand will grow by nearly 30% in 2024, exceeding the 10% annual growth rate in the 2010s.
The report also reveals risks to the supply-demand balance over the next decade. Investment momentum in critical minerals has weakened, with growth of only 5% in 2024, far lower than 14% in 2023. Exploration activity remains largely unchanged in 2024, with growth momentum stagnating since 2020 and signs of a slowdown in funding for startups.
