Germany's lowest clean energy generation in more than a decade through 2025 is a blow to the energy transition momentum in Europe's largest economy.
In the first four months of the year, clean energy generation totaled just under 80 terawatt hours (TWh). Clean energy production was 16% lower than in the same period in 2024 and the lowest level in the same period since 2015.
To compensate for the drop in clean electricity supply, German power companies were forced to increase fossil fuel generation by 10% from a year earlier, with the share of fossil fuels in Germany's power generation mix climbing to its highest level since 2018.
As Germany has positioned itself as a regional leader in energy transition and a major proponent of a cleaner power system in Europe, the resurgence in fossil fuel generation has put the German power system under greater scrutiny.
Given the reversal of energy transition momentum in Germany so far this year, any continued setbacks in such an influential economy could undermine regional commitment to energy transition efforts.
A 31% drop in wind farm output so far this year is the main reason for the drop in clean energy supply in Germany.
Germany produced just 39 terawatt hours of wind power in January-April this year, the lowest amount for the same period since 2017, even though Germany's wind capacity grew by about 30% during that period.
Low wind speeds at turbines were the main cause of wind power's problems this year, causing wind power's share of Germany's electricity production mix to fall from 34% in January-April 2024 to 24% this year.
Wind power generation for German utilities is likely to fall further in the coming months.
Wind power supply typically peaks in winter and spring, when wind speeds are usually the highest of the year, and hits its annual slump in the summer, when wind speeds drop.
So, with wind power generation already down more than 30% in the first four months of this year, German power suppliers must now prepare for a further drop in wind power in the coming summer.
Fortunately for utilities, solar farms reach their peak generation in the northern hemisphere summer and will provide power companies with record amounts of clean electricity during daytime hours in the coming months.
However, with solar power completely shut down at night, peak monthly solar generation will be lower than what wind farms produce during peak generation.
This will result in utilities needing to increase production from other energy sources to fill the resulting supply gap.
Coal plants have been the preferred source of electricity in Germany and the country's main source of electricity until 2025.
Coal plants produced 40TWh, up 16% from January to April last year and the highest total coal-fired generation in the month since 2023.
Coal emissions increased by a similar amount, with 36 million tonnes of coal in January to April 2024 and nearly 42 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in January to April this year.
High gas costs have curbed German gas power generation so far this year, with German gas power generation falling by about 9% in January to April compared with the same period last year.
However, as regional gas prices have fallen by about a third since their peak in February, German utilities may choose to increase gas-fired power generation in the future.
As gas-fired plants emit less than half the carbon dioxide of coal-fired plants for each terawatt-hour of electricity produced, expanding gas-fired power generation could reduce overall emissions as long as coal-fired power generation is reduced.
But if German companies choose to expand coal and gas-fired power generation to meet overall electricity demand, total electricity emissions will continue to climb and could further weaken Germany's position as a regional leader in energy transition.
