A recent modeling study published in 'Nature Climate Change', a professional academic journal under Springer Nature, predicts a dramatic increase in the number of glaciers disappearing globally each year, reaching 2,000-4,000 by the mid-21st century. The exact number depends on the rate of warming relative to pre-industrial levels. The authors point out that if warming is limited to 1.5°C, the number of glaciers remaining by 2100 will double compared to a scenario of 2.7°C warming, preventing the near-complete disappearance of glaciers under a 4.0°C warming scenario.
The paper explains that global glaciers are retreating rapidly, a trend linked to rising sea levels. However, the disappearance of individual glaciers also carries cultural, spiritual, and economic implications. Glaciers hold cultural and spiritual significance in some communities, attract millions of tourists annually, and are vital water sources for downstream regions.
In this study, Lander Van Tricht, the first author and corresponding author of the paper, along with colleagues and collaborators from ETH Zurich, analyzed a database of over 200,000 glaciers based on satellite-observed glacier profiles. They used three glacier models under four warming scenarios (temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.7°C, and 4.0°C by 2100). They introduced the concept of "peak glacier extinction," meaning the year with the highest number of glaciers disappearing.
The results indicate that under the 1.5°C warming scenario, glaciers will reach their peak extinction in 2041, with 2,000 glaciers disappearing annually. Under the 4.0°C scenario, due to more severe and prolonged losses in glacier area and volume, the peak will occur later, potentially reaching 4,000 glaciers per year in the mid-2050s.
Meanwhile, regions dominated by smaller glaciers, such as the European Alps and the subtropical Andes, are expected to reach their peak earlier, with potentially 50% of their glaciers disappearing within the next 20 years. Regions with large glaciers, such as Greenland and the Antarctic region, will reach peak glacial retreat in the late 21st century.
The authors of the paper conclude that this research reveals a turning point in glacial evolution, the impact of which will affect ecosystems, water resources, and cultural heritage. They state that future research may adjust these predictions, but whether the loss of 2,000 or 4,000 glaciers annually by mid-21st century depends on climate policies implemented today.
