The good news is that France's greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 are less than previously estimated, according to Les Echos. Citepa, the agency responsible for calculating France's greenhouse gas emissions, released its final report on emissions for 2023 on the 16th, and made a more accurate and reliable estimate of the trend in 2024.
According to the report, France's emissions (excluding carbon sinks, that is, carbon stored in forests and soil) fell by 6.8% (to 376 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) between 2022 and 2023, instead of the previously estimated 5.8%. Citepa said the estimate changed due to updates to certain indicators for 2023. The final data is being submitted to international organizations with an 18-month lag compared to the current year.
According to the new estimates, France has achieved the goals of the National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) for the period 2019-2023, including carbon sinks. According to preliminary data, France has slightly exceeded the target. During this period, France's total emissions averaged 370 metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year, while the target was 380 metric tons.
Even without including carbon sinks, the target was reached: the final total was 406 metric tons per year, compared to the previous estimate of 425 metric tons. All major emitting sectors contributed: energy (-7 metric tons), industry (-7.2 metric tons), transport (-5.6 metric tons), buildings (-6.9 metric tons), agriculture (-0.5 metric tons).
While this higher-than-expected drop is good news for France's decarbonization progress, Citepa confirms that the decline slowed down significantly last year: according to the latest estimates, emissions fell by 1.8% last year (to 369 metric tons of CO2 equivalent, 5.4 tons per capita). Citepa emphasizes that this drop is the same as the estimate made in March last year, but there are differences in absolute terms and across sectors.
The slowdown observed in 2024 does not bode well for France's decarbonization trajectory. According to the SNBC for the period 2025-2030, published at the end of 2024, as Citepa points out, the rate should climb to 5% per year between 2022 and 2030. Even with a strong 2023, and excluding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the average annual reduction rate between 2018 and 2023 would still be 4.2%.
